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2011 Cottonseed Prices: February

Cottonseed Supply/Demand Balance Sheet(000 tons)
Yrs beg Aug 1USDA

USDA

Feb./ USDAFeb./ USDAFeb./ CSD
 

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10E

2010/11F

2010/11F

Beg. Stocks

489

643

514

342

342

Imports

3

0

24

0

0

Production

6589

4300

4149

6191

6210

Total Supply

7080

4943

4687

6533

6552

Crush

2706

2240

1900

2500

2500

Exports

599

191

291

350

340

Feed, Seed, & “Other”

3132

1999

2154

3240

3245

Total Disappearance

6437

4429

4305

6090

6085

End Stocks

643

514

342

443

467

COTTONSEED fob points
Prices 2-11-11Bid / Offer / TradeYr Ago
Southeast($/ton)

No. Carolina

Spot

206b  /   208-210o  /   208t

185o

 

Ap-Ag

215b  /   218o

196o

(as ginned)

OND

155b  /   165-168o  /   166t

n/a

So. Carolina

Spot

202b  /   208o  /   208t

203o

 

OND

155b  /   165o

n/a

Georgia So.

Spot

200-202b  /   205o  /   200t

200o

 

Ap-Ag

210o

205o

(as ginned)

OND

155b  /   165o

n/a

Mid-South($/ton)

Memphis No.

Spot

225b  /   230o  /   230t

208-210t

 

Fb-Ag

232b  /   236o

n/a

(as ginned)

OND

188b  /   192-200o  /   192-200t

n/a

MO Bootheel

Spot

230o

210o

 

Fb-Mr

233o

n/a

 

OND

200o  /   195-200t

n/a

Southwest($/ton)

West Texas

Fb-Mr

245b  /   250o  /   245t

210-215o

 

Ap-Sp

247b  /   258o

220o

(as ginned)

OND

205b  /   210-220o

170o

Far West($/ton)

Arizona

Spot.

288b

250o

Cal. Corc. N

Spot

310-312b  /   315-318o  /   315-316t

285o

& Stockton

Fb-Sp

325o

n/a

(as ginned)

OND

275o

n/a

Specially Processed Products($/ton)

Easi Flo ™ Courtland, AL

Spot

265o

240o

FuzZpellets ™ Weldon, NC

Spot

n/a

250o

Cotton Flo™ Weldon, NC

Spot

n/a

250o

 
 
b = bid o = offer t = trade n/a = not available

COTTONSEED dlvd. points
Prices 02-11-11DumpHopperLive FloorRail
Northeast($/ton)

W. New York

Spot

265o

 

 

 

 

Ap-Ag

277o

   

SE Pennsylvania

Spot

246o

 

 

 

 

Ap-Ag

255o

   
NE Ohio

Spot

265o

   

 

Ap-Ag

277o

 

 

 

Midwest($/ton)

MI (Grand Rpds.)

Spot

274o

 

 

 

 

Ap-Ag

287o

 

 

 

MN (Rochester)

Spot

 

281-285o

285-290o

 

 

Fb-Ag

 

288-295o

294-299o

 

WI (Madison)

Spot

 

275-279o

279-284o

 

 

Fb-Ag

 

278-283o

286-289o

 

Southwest($/ton)

Texas / Dublin-

Spot

 

270o

 

 

Stephenville

Fb-Sp

 

278o

  
Rail - fob track points($/ton)

Laredo TX

(Mid-Bridge)

Fb-Mr

 

 

 

290o

 

AMJ

   

295o

California

Spot

 

 

 

n/a

Idaho (UP)

Spot

 

 

 

310b 315o

 

AMJ

 

 

 

318o

WA/OR (BN)

Spot

 

 

 

322t

 

AMJ

 

 

 

338o

b = bid o = offer t = trade n/a = not available

Cottonseed Dairy Buyer Profiles

GROUP 1: Base demand group that will formulate cottonseed in at a 4-6 lb. inclusion rate regardless of price.
GROUP 2: Formulates at a 2-3 lb. inclusion rate regardless of price, and would like to feed at the 4-6 lb. level. However, the last 2-4 lb. is price sensitive.
GROUP 3: This is the major swing factor for cottonseed demand. They enter the market when the price is right or other factors prevail (i.e. short hay supplies), and will subsequently exit when other opportunities exist.
GROUP 4: This group does not have access to, or the ability to incorporate whole cottonseed into their rations. However over time, dairymen in this group will migrate up into Groups 1, 2 or 3.


GINNING REPORT: The running bales ginned total as of the beginning of February was 17.528 million bales. From year ago results, this is an increase of 5.8 million bales. Compared to the last report, this is an increase of 385,900 bales. Over the past couple reports this one had the largest increase compared to previous re-sults as gins in some states have hurried to complete their run. The output from Texas was larger than in the previous report. The next update will be released during the last half of March and at that time only a single digit increase is anticipated, which will come mostly from western states.

Running Bales Ginned Totals as of 02/01/11Compared to 3-year Averages for the period

COTTONSEED MARKET: In the California market, nearby prices are several dollars stronger compared to our last install-ment. Nonetheless, end user demand hasn’t vastly improved even while milk futures have improved and rallying corn prices would suggest cottonseed is reasonably priced. The price increases are be-ing associated with the pace of price increases in West Texas. The supply side of the market has not been an issue, but participants are concerned about winter weather related slowdowns in rail deliver-ies, but that doesn’t appear it will be a problem. Elsewhere in the Far West, offers were raised. The Arizona market hasn’t traded as those with supply are not willing to offer. Nearby rail offers have edged higher in recent weeks as end users have become a bit more aggressive buyers.

Merchants in West Texas had more inquiries recently based on the harsh winter weather and the upward price movement of CBOT futures following USDA’s report with a tighter corn balance sheet. Not all the inquiries resulted in sales, but certainly gins are keen on insuring that seed prices keep pace with corn and other feed ingredients. Cottonseed should be a reasonable value in rations, but buyers are not ready to book forward supplies. If an inverse to forward prices develops this spring, then end users will likely cover their requirements. There hasn’t been as much new crop trad-ing this week as gins are willing to wait on committing to sales until they are more confident that they will have supply to sell.

New crop buying from resellers in the Mid-South continues to be the main feature of this re-gion. Gins have become more eager to put sales on as early expectations are for a significant increase in cotton acreage in the region. Nearby trading remained light with only small quantities being sold. Winter weather related trucking issues the past few weeks have limited the amount of trading as well. For the time being, nearby supply should not be a problem.

In the Southeast, recently there were larger volume trades that have taken place in Georgia for delivery during the next couple months. This should help eliminate some of the heavy feel to this mar-ket, which was its main feature over the past few months. Georgia is still expected to have an active nearby market as there are still inventories that need to be sold. The North Carolina market has a tighter feel. The onslaught of winter weather seems to have raised buying interest from dairies in the Northeast. However, demand is not as strong as merchants had anticipated. New crop trading has taken place on a small scale between resellers and gins. Meanwhile, end users are willing to wait on the sidelines.

COTTONSEED BALANCE SHEET: USDA’s balance sheet is unchanged from last month. Their production outlook is unchanged and the demand side of the market appears to be steady. Much focus in the market is on expectations for increased cotton plantings this spring, but USDA re-leases their balance sheet for next year’s crop in May.

The Cottonseed Digest’s balance sheet had a minor shift of 20,000 tons from the crush to the Feed, Seed and Other category. The rate of the crush has not been as robust as anticipated. Only the last two months of the 2010 crush exceeded the 5-year average. The crushers certainly possess enough cottonseed. Once January crush data is released at the end of this month, the first half of the crush will be in the books and there will be more confidence in the final outcome. Exports were low-ered 30,000 tons, meanwhile the carry out was raised this amount. Accumulative exports are below the 5-year average by over 50,000 tons. The recent rally in milk prices are raising hopes for better dairy margins and the likelihood that cottonseed inclusion rates will be raised in rations. From our Cot-tonseed Dairy Buyer Profile listed above on this web page, there will likely be some movement of dair-ies shifting from Group 3 to Group 2. This situation, combined with strong corn prices, sets the stage for stout cottonseed.










For weekly cottonseed pricing and commentary contact:

James Bueltel
Senior Analyst/Editor
Informa Economics, Inc.
3464 Washington Drive, Suite 120
Eagan, MN 55122
Direct: 651-925-1052
Main: 651-925-1060
Fax: 651-925-1061
james.bueltel@informaecon.com
www.Informaecon.com


Every effort has been made to assure the accuracy of the information and market data which is provided in this publication as a compilation for the use of its readers. Information has been obtained by Informa Economics, Inc. from sources believed to be reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or mechanical error, Informa does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.

Published by Informa Economics, Inc., 3464 Washington Drive, Suite 102, Eagan, MN 55122-1438.

 

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