Project Summaries

06-824  Project Manager: J. M. Reeves

ECONOMICS OF PINK BOLLWORM ERADICATION

George B. Frisvold, University of Arizona

The study will estimate the costs and benefits of a pink bollworm (PBW) eradication program for West Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California over a long-run time horizon of 20 years or more. Because of significant up-front costs, it may well be 2015 or later before the program pays for itself. The first phase of the project will develop state-level average costs and benefits over time. Sensitivity analysis will be conducted to see how state-level benefits under changing assumptions about market prices, cotton acreage, and cotton program structure. The second phase of the study will focus on representative farm modeling. The costs and benefits of participating in the program will vary by farm type (size, debt position, technology, average pest pressure, Bt cotton refuge choice, etc.) and more specific geographic location. Crop enterprise budgets for Southwest states will be used to construct several different representative farms.

This study will examine the trade-off over time of short-term costs of implementing the program versus long-term benefits of PBW eradication. Federal appropriations for the PBW Eradication Program are tentative in any given year. More comprehensive information about the costs and long-term benefits will inform USDA funding decisions.

Comparing pre-eradication years with data since the initiation of the pink bollworm (PBW) eradication program, there have been statistically significant reductions in bollworm infestation rates, the percentage of acres requiring treatment and yield losses from pink bollworm in both New Mexico and Arizona. In recent years, all these values have been essentially zero. In addition, since the eradication program, there have been statistically significant reductions in cotton grower seed costs and total costs and losses from all cotton pests in New Mexico. There have not been such reductions in seed costs and total pest costs and losses in Arizona. This study will continue in 2013.

 

Project Year: 2012
 

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